Free Q4 guide

Black Friday isn't discovery. It's execution day.

Shoppers research and decide in early November. By Cyber Week they're only executing decisions already made. If your budget curve doesn't mirror that, you're paying peak CPMs to reach people who already chose.

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$44.2B

US Cyber Week 2025 online sales, +7.7% YoY

202.9M

US shoppers over five days — record since 2017

57.5%

of Cyber Monday purchases made on mobile

What's inside

Thirteen sections. One window.

The Q4 Race maps November 1 to January 31 on verified BFCM 2025 data — the demand curves, the buyers, the messaging and the offer economics of the whole season.

The four movements of the season, and why the boundaries between them decide the outcome
Four demand curves — gift-driven, stock-up, counter-seasonal, evergreen — plus the diagnostic that locates your brand on one
Seven Q4 buyer archetypes, and the buyer-to-recipient matrix most brands get backwards
Steering vs success KPIs — which ones you act on mid-race, which ones only classify it afterwards
Offer economics — what your margin allows against what your objective demands
Five expensive mistakes, including the one that ends the season on December 31

What's not inside

The dated calendar. The operating plan runs on seven stints with hard start and end dates, and those boundaries move with your demand curve, your margin band and the size of the list you arrive with. A calendar borrowed from a brand on a different curve is worse than no calendar at all. Everything else is here in full.

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Where should I send it?

Three questions. They decide what I send you afterwards.

Which one are you?

Ecommerce brand Agency or freelancer

Annual revenue

Under $1M $1M – $5M $5M – $20M Over $20M

One email a week after that, on Meta media buying. Unsubscribe in one click. Your data is never sold or shared. Privacy

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Confirm and it's yours

A confirmation email is on its way. Click the link inside and the guide opens straight away — nothing else sends until you confirm.

Not there in five minutes? Look in promotions, and drag it to your primary so the next one lands properly.

The season is already moving

Thirteen sections, verified data, free. One email a week after that about ecommerce growth and ads — unsubscribe in one click.

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